Africa’s Massive Renewable Energy and Green Minerals: A Recipe for Green Energy Revolution
By Abay Yimere
Africa contributes less than 4 percent of global emissions but has already experienced the impacts of climate change, including droughts, floods, heatwaves, and sea-level rise. Nevertheless, Africa remains at the center of the fight against future climate change. With the youngest population in the world and rapid urbanization and population growth rates, the African population is estimated to reach 2.5 billion by 2050. Currently, the continent's energy production and emissions per capita are the lowest globally. On average, Sub-Saharan Africa produces 0.8 tonnes of CO2 (TCO2) per person per year, and the continental and global averages are 1.1 and 4.8 tonnes per year, respectively. The two most populated African countries, Nigeria and Ethiopia, emit an average of 0.7 tonnes and 0.1 per person per year, respectively. On the other hand, oil-rich countries such as Libya, Equatorial Guinea, and South Africa emit 7.4, 7.3, and 7.6 TCO2 per person per year in that order. If we excluded South Africa, Egypt, Algeria, and Nigeria, the African contribution to the global emission is less than 1%.
In contrast, China and the United States emit 27 and 14 TCO2 per person per year, respectively. Energy inequality is higher than economic inequality between Western and African countries. For example, the carbon footprint per person in the United States is 160 and 23 times greater than that of the two most populated African countries, Ethiopia and Nigeria, respectively. The energy footprint gap between countries and within countries is higher than the income gaps. Only 27% of the African rural have access to electricity. Therefore, energy production in Africa is about poverty reduction and job creation as it is a green transition.
Renewables
The continent of Africa is endowed with abundant renewable resources. The intensity of sunlight in the Sahara is sufficient to provide the planet with abundant solar, whereas the wind potential of Africa is estimated to be sufficient to fulfill the entire continent’s power demands many times over, but only 0.01 percent of this enormous potential has been tapped into.
Geothermal energy is the second most abundant energy source globally, followed by solar energy, and has large potential in Africa. The $573 billion Desertec concentrated solar power (CSP) project (2009), dubbed a “miracle or mirage” for its ability to heat water, drive turbines, and electrify the planet from Africa's Sahel area, encapsulates the immense renewable resources of Africa. The objective of this project was to meet the electricity demands of Africa, the Middle East, and approximately 15 percent of Europe’s electricity needs by 2050. The underlying concept of the Desertec project was that energy collected from deserts was the largest source of energy on the planet and that six hours of sunshine in the region could power the world for a year. However, the project was short-lived, owing to the weak rule of law and political instability of the region, particularly the spread of the Arab Spring in the Maghreb region.
In addition to being a source of clean energy, solar PVs offer additional benefits for Africa. For example, solar panels could provide multiple solutions for a continent beset by droughts and water losses through evaporation. Massive solar farms in the Sahel region of Africa could help to regenerate vegetation. Floating solar PVs over African hydropower reservoirs could constitute an important tool for water resources adaption in a continent that is agonized by frequent draught. A joint hydro-photovoltaic operation can significantly reduce the evaporation of the reservoir's water and increase energy productions. This hybrid approach could be more appealing to the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) in Ethiopia and the Inga Dam in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC)
Large hydropower reservoirs constitute a significant energy source in Africa, particularly in its eastern and southern regions. Hydropower accounts for over 80 percent of current electricity generation in Ethiopia, Malawi, Mozambique, Namibia, and Zambia. Africa’s installed hydropower capacity reached 37 GW by the beginning of 2020, and by 2025, when the 50 currently ongoing hydropower projects are completed, the continent's installed hydropower capacity will reach 52 GW, with 15 GW being added over the next three years. Therefore, large solar farms not only help to electrify Africa and its neighbor but also can save waters to quench the one in three African who experienced water scarcity. Moreover, this provides a flickering hope to help revive the Green Sahara, which arguably occurred as a consequence of the African Humid Period (AHP) that was triggered by the changes in orbital forcing.
Despite its abundant renewable energy resources, Africa faces significant challenges in attaining Agenda 2063 and the United Nations Goal 7 of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) 2030. Currently, access to electricity in the region is approximately 32 percent in Central Africa, 46 percent in Eastern Africa, 53 percent in West Africa, 85 percent in Southern Africa, and more than 95 percent in North Africa. Approximately 600 million Africans do not have access to electricity, where there is such access, it is characterized by unaffordability, and unreliability; still more, approximately 900 million Africans do not have access to clean cooking. Overall, access to electricity is less than 50 percent in 24 African countries. In contrast, the average global access to electricity is 90 percent.
Green minerals for green technology
Critical raw materials (CRMs) and rare earth minerals, usually referred to as the "vitamin" of renewable energies, are used in telecommunications, petrochemicals, hydrogen storage, and magnetic materials. However, owing to climate challenge and subsequent pathways to net zero emissions, the value and significance of these elements have drastically increased. A World Bank report stated that the production of CRMs, including graphite, lithium, and cobalt, could likely increase by 500 percent by 2050. Battery storage technologies and electric cars will have the highest demand for CRM and rare-earth minerals, at 30 times the current demand. On average, 48 pounds of a traditional automobile come from copper, but a hybrid electric vehicle (HEV) comprises 88 pounds, and electric vehicle (EV) 183 pounds. The second-highest demand will be for wind turbines, followed by solar PVs. Additionally, the development of hydrogen as an energy carrier increases the demand for nickel and zirconium.
Lithium-ion batteries (LIB), mainly produced from Lithium and cobalt (Li-Co), are a critical input for EV. The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and the Bikita district of Zimbabwe cover more than 70% of the global productions of the minerals, while exploration in a similar geological zone of Sub-Sharan and West Africa are undergoing. Nonetheless, unless the continent improves its weak capability and invests in the production value chain, Africa’s beneficiary from its resource will remain elusive; rather, it may be a recipe for geopolitical chessboard. For example, presently, Africa gets only between 10 and 15% from these raw materials export.
Conclusion
Historically, regions and countries had transformed when they exploited their natural resources and advanced them through R&D. For example, the introduction of the potato from the New World (South America) into the Old World (Northern Europe) significantly changed the world order. The spread of the potato was correlated with rapid population growth, high rates of urbanization, and economic development in Europe.
Potatoes altered global dynamics and enabled Europeans to hold power; the introduction of the Green Revolution in Asia transformed Asian economies. Adopting high-yielding varieties (HYV) and improving varieties (IV) of food crops increased agricultural productivity across the region and significantly reduced poverty. In addition, the Green Revolution increased grain yield per acre and aggregate food production. Investment in research and development (R&D), particularly in plant breeding, was the principal factor in the rapid adaptation and propagation of IV and HYV crop production in Asia.
The current African population of 1.3 billion is expected to reach 2.5 billion by 2050. By the end of the century, one in four people will be African. The world cannot afford for one in four people to live without access to clean cooking and electricity. Despite Africa's insignificant emissions today, considering the rapid population growth and high rate of urbanization combined with massive energy demand under the traditional growth scenario, the world will not be able to prevent the global average temperature from exceeding 2.0 °C by the end of the century. The solution for this is functional multilateralism and tangible action. Combining CRM and renewables, Africa needs to convert its potential into a real green energy revolution. The international community needs to provide the necessary financial and technical support to realize the ambition. Despite the vast potential of both renewables and enabler minerals, hydro renewable power generations contribute between 3 and 4% of the regional energy mix. Even if renewable energies like solar and wind productions increase to feed the grid, the national and sub-regional transmissions are unidirectional. In other words, the grids are not designed to accept considerable energies at the distributional level. As a result, the generated power will be stranded. These problems could be attributed to many factors, including weak capacities, lack of investment, and regulatory challenges. However, as the introduction of the potato to Europe's cool and moist soil transformed Europe and the introduction of the green agricultural revolution in Asia also transformed the Asian economies, renewables can transform Africa. If Africans stand together, improve the institution's quality, harmonize energy regulation, promote investment, modernize the grid, and boost human capability; in that case, renewables can transform Africa and play an indispensable role in the race to NetZero. ∎
Abay Yimere is a Postdoctoral Scholar at The Fletcher School, Tufts University.