Recurrent drought hits the Horn of Africa: Evidence-based climate policy is needed to stave off the disaster
By Abay Yimere
The Horn of Africa has been plagued by severe drought for six consecutive seasons, along with conflicts, floods, and other extreme weather events, posing considerable threats to the region. Projections indicate that droughts in this area will become more widespread, intense, and prolonged, potentially exacerbating the fragile socioeconomic structures of communities. A century ago, Ethiopia would experience droughts every 10 or 15 years, but now they occur every 5 years, with increased severity, frequency, and duration, pushing the region’s ecosystem to its limits. Despite the 2015-2016 drought being one of the most severe in the region for 60 years, the recurring droughts have continued to expand and intensify. As a result, the current drought has left around 23 million people in Ethiopia, Kenya, and Somalia in highly food insecure conditions, according to a statement by the Food Security and Nutrition Working Group. This consecutive drought has also claimed to destroy 6.8 million livestock. Below illustrates the territorial expansion of the ongoing drought.
Figure 1: Current drought in the Horn of Africa region. Source: UNHCR the UN Refuge Agency
The livelihoods of many in the affected regions depend on migratory pastoralism and livestock grazing, but these grazing lands are becoming degraded, hindering the pastoralist way of life and leading to conflicts between pastoralists and sedentary farmers, as well as among pastoralists from different clans. On top of climate change, these conflicts, in turn, contribute to internal displacement, hunger, and outmigration.
Figure 2: Warmer than usual temperatures are observed in most parts of the Horn of Africa region. Source: IGAD Climate Prediction and Application Center (ICPAC)
By 2021, the Horn of Africa had experienced an average temperature rise of 1.12°C relative to 1961–1990 temperatures, which is higher than that experienced by the rest of the world for the same period. If temperature continues to rise and the increment reach above 2.0°C in the Horn Region (See Figure 2), the likelihood of prolonged and severe droughts could considerably increase.
The Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone is the primary rainy season for the Horn of Africa, where altitude and vegetation type mirror rainfall patterns. The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a global weather phenomenon linked to droughts, floods, and heavy rains, is the main cause of drought in Ethiopia, Kenya, and Somalia. Scientists have traced the region’s dry conditions to ENSO and sea-surface temperature interactions known as the Indian Ocean Dipole. This climate pattern can be studied and predicted in advance to prevent potential disasters. However, early warnings from scientists are insufficient without the government’s preparedness, listening, and coping mechanisms to save lives and reduce losses.
The governments’ lack of interest in heeding scientists’ early warnings about the possible impacts of climate change factors, such as drought, flood, and extreme weather events, including conflicts, has resulted in considerable displacement in the region. People in the Horn of Africa have been struggling to survive on degraded land and overcrowded and insecure areas, and a new wave of drought-displaced people will join the existing internally displaced population that is unable to return to their former homes. In 2021, approximately 6.8 million people in the Horn region of Ethiopia, Somalia, and Kenya were living in internally displaced camps, and the current drought, which covers widespread parts of the region, could double this number, as the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees data shows. See Figure 3 below for the historical trend of displaced people in the region.
Figure 3. Historical Displaced people (Source: Displacement Tracking Metrix)
Climate science literature and models suggest that droughts are becoming more frequent and severe, causing considerable damage to humans, animals, and ecosystems. Recurrent drought in the region has led to loss of lives, livestock, pasture, food, and water and famine. The socioeconomic and environmental impacts of severe droughts are dire, as seen in the persistent droughts of 1996, 1998, 2005, and 2016. The 2016 drought in Kenya, for example, left around 3 million people facing hunger. The consequences of these droughts are not only due to natural disasters but also to the lack of robust climate policies to mitigate the dire consequences. To prevent future climate-related catastrophes in the region, evidence-based and tailored climate-resilient policies need to be urgently `developed and implemented. The Horn governments must mainstream climate actions into their national action toolkit and budget lines and turn promises and pledges into action.
While national government policies are crucial, anthropology, science, and technology studies emphasize that local knowledge and multiple values and interpretations of drought allow localities to respond early and mitigate losses. That is to say that social interactions and personal experiences of drought are embedded in various social constructions across time and geographical scales, which may differ from global aggregated metrics to signal droughts. For instance, the pastoral communities of the Horn of Africa define drought as the depletion of grazing land, timing of rain, and health of the livestock, which may not match the scientific measurement of drought. In order to save lives, mitigate losses, and hold local governments accountable, it is crucial for the global community to acknowledge the local knowledge and understanding of how drought impacts communities in multiple ways.
Food insecurity is not solely caused by food shortages, but rather by a lack of effective policies and institutional frameworks. While individuals may starve due to a lack of access to food, the collapse of food in one area does not necessarily mean a lack of food availability in other areas. Rather it calls upon a government to implement comprehensive and integrative policies to address distribution failures during times of drought or famine. Amartya Sen famously used the examples of the 1974 Bangladesh Famine, the 1943 Bengal Famine, and the 1982 Ethiopian Famine to support this argument. As it seems human are immune to learn from history, while million Ethiopians are suffering from severe food insecurity, famine, and malnutrition, presently the government of Ethiopia is declaring a wheat exports program.
Drought could be manageable as a chronic condition with the building of institutional and technical capacity to adapt to the dynamic and changing climate. Also, weak and fragmented disaster prevention policy and a failure to have and integrate climate smart policies into national development plans further exacerbate the adverse impact of extreme weather events and climate hazards. In other words, while we cannot prevent drought from happening, resilient climate policies can prevent large-scale disasters. Indeed, scientists and policymakers are in constant battle on this as Professor Kelly Sims Gallagher famously said that human beings are “In the struggle to combat climate change,” and “the world is fighting the last war” to win it.
Abay Yimere is a Post Doctoral Scholar at the Climate Policy Lab at Tufts University.