Invest in Our Planet, Invest in the Triple Nexus
By Abay Yimere
April 1970 marked the dawn of a new generation of thinking that strives to unravel the complexity and dynamics of climate change in a collective endeavor to create a better and fair world. Thus, this year's Earth Day theme, Invest in Our Planet, resonates with the paramount importance of investment in the triple nexus of water, energy, and food.
Rapid population growth, urbanization, industrialization, drought, and climate change have significantly increased the vulnerability of water, energy, and land resources. Therefore, the triple nexus of water, energy, and food has invited policymakers and researchers to opt for sustainable modes of the operand to address the current production and consumption of water, energy, and food systems. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report, released just a few weeks before Earth Day, warned of an increased frequency and intensity of drought and flood occurrences with broader global coverage.
Frequent droughts and desertification have increased the expansion of irrigation. A strong linear relationship was also observed between an increase in irrigation area and water withdrawals. Therefore, the expansion of the irrigation area is an indicator of water withdrawal. However, the volume of the water withdrawn depends on the type of irrigation, soil, humidity, wind, crop, and temperature, among other factors. Globally, irrigation represents 20% of cultivated land, constitutes 40% of crop production, and accounts for 70% of freshwater withdrawals. According to the Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO, 2021) report, irrigated areas of total production contribution are expected to increase to 46% by 2050 under the current agricultural production contribution.
In the last decade, irrigated areas have expanded by 4%, while rain-fed agriculture increased by 2.6%, and animal husbandry decreased by 20%. Population increases combined with frequent droughts, floods, and warming temperatures put pressure on food security by lowering agricultural productivity, increasing desertification, shrinking arable lands, and decreasing animal husbandry through desertification of woodlands, bushlands, grasslands, and shrubs. Approximately 84% of the currently estimated 608 million farmers are smallholder farmers, who possess less than two hectares (ha) and share only 2% of the global irrigated land. Smallholder farmers in developing countries are characterized by high vulnerability and low resilience to climate shocks and extreme weather events. Further, the availability of arable land is decreasing in some parts of the world while increasing in other parts. For example, in Sub-Saharan Africa and Asia, including Ethiopia, Nigeria, Pakistan, Senegal, and Tajikistan, the availability of arable land is shrinking. Rapid population growth and climate change are among the cause of the demand for land outpacing the availability. In some parts of the northern hemisphere, the ice coverage is receding, and the frigid regions of Canada, Norway, England, Russia, the mountainous region of Central Asia, and the Rocky Mountains of the USA are also disappearing. That is, the availability of arable land increases compared to developing countries.
Hence, as desertification expands in one part of the world, ice and frigid areas retreat in others. The bushlands, grasslands, and the arable lands in Africa and Central Asia have become deserts, a recipe for decreasing arable land. In contrast, the great plains and swamps in North America's Great Plains, Europe's Pontic Steppe, and East Asia's Manchurian Plains have been converted into farmlands, a possibility of increasing arable land. Although the magnitude of increasing or decreasing rate of the available arable land differs by scenario, the pattern is regionally consistent.
Subsequently, expanding rainfed and irrigation areas in Africa is highly constrained. The declining status in Africa is primarily due to higher population growth combined with soil erosion and land degradation, which has doomed the continent without frontiers to expand rainfed agriculture. Therefore, the alternative is to push the last mile and intensify irrigation, which will result in increasingly stiff competition for water resources. Cases have been documented in Northern Africa and Central and Western Asia, where the scarcity of freshwater creates rough competition between agriculture, domestic use, industry, and livestock. Even worse, residents of Eastern African communities described the recent drought as a catastrophe that" swept away" animals and people.
Scarce freshwater resources have led some regions and countries to exploit aquifers for irrigation and domestic consumption extensively. Consequently, groundwater withdrawals reached 19% and are projected to increase at a rate of 2.2% per year, particularly in drought-stressed irrigated areas where agriculture depends on the continuous and intensive utilization of groundwater. In addition to its rapid depletion, groundwater receives little to no recharge, which poses a risk of underground and surface water depletion and subsequent tension between countries. The Aral Sea is an example of surface water drying up due to drought and over-exploitation for cotton irrigation in Central Asia. The crux of the problem in the Aral Sea Basin, among others, upstream Kyrgyzstan needs to save water to meet its higher energy demand during winter; however, more water needs to be released in the summer, which is the irrigation season for downstream countries.
Hydropower will not always reduce the streamflow or significantly cause harm to downstream countries. For instance, a study in the Nam Ngum sub-basin of the Mekong River Basin found that full hydropower development tripled the benefits of irrigation. However, even though similar studies, including ours, highlight benefits including irrigation expansion, flood control, and arresting sediment for downstream countries, the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) and the Blue Nile River Basin in general remained as the most conflict-ridden river basins. Lack of investment in a shared vision and steering toward cooperation impaired the riparian states to achieve a lot when they pulled together.
There are 286 transboundary river basins shared by 151 countries and populated by 2.8 billion people, which constitutes approximately 42% of the global population. Therefore, Earth Day is a critical reminder to strengthen the transboundary water cooperation and achieve targets 6 and 7 of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), "clean water for all" and "access to affordable and reliable energy for all," respectively. Despite the overstretched yet appealing target of the SDGs Agenda 2030, the reality is that our planet is presently sheltering 785 million people under severe water insecurity without basic water services and 759 million people without access to electricity. Therefore, investing in protecting riparian ecosystems, modernizing irrigation, and integrating hydropower with irrigation and other renewable resources is fundamental for ensuring sustainability.
Hydropower is the oldest, most mature, and most competitive water to wire renewable energy resource. It accounts for 17% of the global annual electricity generation and has further potential. In Europe, 50% of the hydropower potential has been utilized, whereas only 6% has been utilized in Africa. Like the relationship between water and irrigation, water and energy are intricately linked and reinforced. Water availability determines the scale and purpose of hydropower projects. In fact, only 25% of the globally available 45,000 large hydroelectric dams are dedicated to hydropower generation. The remaining dams are used for other purposes such as transport, industry, and urban supply. Even the generation and operation of fossil fuel energy, a significant anthropogenic source, is water-intensive. For example, in 2010, water withdrawals for thermoelectric plants in the USA accounted for 45%, while irrigation withdrawals accounted for 38%, and water withdrawals for thermoelectric plants decreased by only 4% in 2015. Biofuel extractions or fracking are also more water-intensive than renewable energy resources. On this Earth Day, it is imperative to emphasize the myriad sources of stress directed towards water resources and reinforce the necessity to invest in our planet.
To epitomize, a specific policy choice for energy and irrigation could affect water availability, and in turn, a policy choice for water could affect energy and food production. This year's Earth Day theme, Invest in Our Planet, is, therefore, an important reminder to highlight the importance of investing in comprehensive, evidence-based, and integrated policy interventions tailored to each unique circumstances aimed at sub-national, national, sub-regional, and regional levels to address intractable and interlinked food, water, and energy poverty exacerbated by climate change. ∎
Abay Yimere is a Postdoctoral scholar at The Fletcher School, Tufts University.