What was decided at COP27 and What to expect at COP28

By Hengrui Liu

Members of the Tufts COP27 delegation in front of the COP27 sign.

COP27, dubbed “The African COP”, took place near Mount Sinai, which is central to many faiths and stories. As UN secretary-general Guterres said, “It’s fitting, climate chaos is a crisis of biblical proportions.” Indeed, the intensity and frequency of climate impacts have been growing this year, from heatwaves in Asia, floods in Pakistan, droughts in Somalia, and storms in the Philippines. Climate change has devastating effects on society, economy, and civilization. When coping with these growing negative impacts, justice and ambition, two main themes of this COP, are equally important. Justice is for those vulnerable countries and regions that historically contributed minimal greenhouse gas emissions but are experiencing deadly climate impacts. Ambition is to keep the 1.5-degree limit alive and go beyond.

Loss and Damage

An important climate justice milestone achieved at COP27 was a breakthrough agreement by all parties on establishing a new “Loss and Damage” fund for vulnerable countries. Although thorny issues remain, this is a good start to address climate justice and provide funding to those vulnerable communities. Some of the money could come from development banks or debt relief. Some could come from a carbon tax or fuel tax. The idea is that developed countries pay developing countries. However, whether China, the current world’s largest carbon emitter but a developing country classified by the UN, should also contribute to the fund was debated. Other questions, including how to operate the fund, how to allocate the fund quickly and fairly, and how much a disaster can be attributed to climate change, remain to be discussed at the next COP.  

Hengrui Liu at the Climate Policy Lab exhibit at COP27.

Mitigation

Without simultaneous progress on mitigation, issues of adaptation and loss and damage will only worsen. Theoretically, strengthening mitigation efforts could be the most cost-effective way to deal with climate change. However, at COP27, hardly any progress was made on mitigation. The final text does not reiterate the request to strengthen nationally determined contributions. It also stresses no new climate targets. Finally, the link to Glasgow pledges is missing.

Climate Finance

In 2009, developed countries pledged to jointly mobilize $100 billion per year by 2020 to address developing countries' mitigation and adaptation needs. However, this commitment has yet to be fulfilled. In the meantime, the gap between the climate finance supply and climate finance demand has been widening as global temperatures steadily increase. At COP27, multilateral development banks and international financial institutions were called on to reform, accept more risk, and systematically leverage private finance for developing countries at affordable costs. Additionally, talks on a new collective climate finance goal for 2025 have only made procedural progress.

Article 6

Finalizing details of Article 6 is a slow and lengthy process but was one of the least contentious topics of the talks at this COP. Article 6.2 is ready and operational as countries have already signed bilateral agreements to cooperate on emission reductions. Progress on Article 6.4 was limited. The risk of double counting remains. For example, the text allows governments to decide whether information about carbon trading is confidential, which could create a loophole in the system.

The COP conference will resume next year in Dubai. At COP28, key findings from the first-ever global stocktake will be presented to identify gaps and opportunities to enhance climate actions. It will also help countries update and revise their NDCs before 2025. It is also expected that Global Goal on Adaption will conclude next year to improve adaptive and resilience capacity among the most vulnerable countries.

 Hengrui Liu is a PhD student in Neubauer Family Economics and Public Policy program (The Fletcher School and the Graduate School of Arts and Sciences at Tufts University). This is the fourth post in the COP27 delegation blog series. Read more posts here.